Muva nje, inkomba ye-dollar yase-US iqhubekile nokukhuphuka, kodwa imakethe engeyona i-ferrous ayizange iwe kakhulu, futhi umkhuba wokuhluka okuhlukahlukene ubonakala ngokucacile.Kusukela kuvalwa ukuhweba ntambama yango-Agasti 24, amathrendi e-Shanghai Aluminium ne-Shanghai Nickel emkhakheni we-non-ferrous ayehluka.Phakathi kwabo, ikusasa le-aluminium yase-Shanghai laqhubeka likhuphuka, livala i-2.66%, libeka ukuphakama kwenyanga eyodwa nesigamu;Ikusasa le-nickel lase-Shanghai laba buthaka yonke indlela, lavala ngo-2.03% ngosuku.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi isiqondiso sakamuva esikhulu sezinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi silinganiselwe.Nakuba izikhulu zakamuva ze-Fed zinesimo sengqondo so-hawkish futhi inkomba yedola laseMelika iqhubekile nokuqina, ayizange idonsele phansi kakhulu umkhuba wezinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi, futhi umkhuba wezinhlobonhlobo ezihlobene ubuyele ezintweni eziyisisekelo.UWu Haode, inhloko ye-Changjiang Futures Guangzhou Branch, ukholelwa ukuthi kunezizathu ezimbili eziyinhloko:
Okokuqala, umjikelezo wangaphambili wokwehla okubukhali kwezintengo zensimbi ezingenayo insimbi ugcwalise okulindelekile kokuwohloka komnotho womhlaba wonke ngaphansi komjikelezo wokwenyuka kwezinga le-Fed.Kusukela ngoJulayi, isimo se-Fed's hawkish sokunyusa izinga lenzalo siye sadamba, futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US kuye kwashintsha kancane, futhi okulindelwe yimakethe ngokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo okuphoqelekile kuye kwaba okulinganiselwe.Nakuba inkomba yedola laseMelika isaqinile, ukulindela ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo kungase kungashukumisi inkomba yedola laseMelika ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhuphuka kakhulu.Ngakho-ke, umthelela wokuqiniswa kwesikhathi esifushane kwedola laseMelika ezinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi uba buthaka kancane, okungukuthi, izinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi “ziyasuswa uzwela” kudola laseMelika ngezigaba.
Okwesibili, ukukhuphuka kwamandla emakethe yensimbi engeyona i-ferrous kusukela ngo-Agasti kuvele ikakhulukazi emakethe yasekhaya.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngokusekelwa kwezinqubomgomo zasekhaya, okulindelwe yimakethe kuye kwaba ngcono;ngakolunye uhlangothi, amazinga okushisa aphezulu ezindaweni eziningi ayaqhubeka nokubangela ukushoda kwamandla kagesi, okubangela ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa ekugcineni kokuncibilika, futhi kuqhubekisele phambili amanani entengo yensimbi ukuba aphinde aqhamuke.Ngakho-ke, kungabonakala ukuthi i-disk yangaphakathi inamandla kune-disk yangaphandle, futhi umehluko phakathi kwamandla angaphakathi nangaphandle wamanani e-aluminium kubonakala ikakhulukazi.
Ngokuka-Hou Yahui, umhlaziyi omkhulu we-Shenyin Wanguo Futures Nonferrous Metals, u-August usesesikhathini sesikhashana somjikelezo wokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo enkulu ye-Fed, futhi umthelela wezinto ezinkulu ubuthakathaka uma kuqhathaniswa.Izintengo zakamuva zensimbi ezingenayo insimbi ikakhulukazi zibonisa okuyisisekelo kwezinhlobonhlobo ngokwazo.Isibonelo, ithusi ne-zinc okunezisekelo eziqinile kusendleleni eqhubekayo yokuphindaphinda.Njengoba uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka lukhuthazwa izindaba zokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza ngesikhathi esisodwa ekhaya naphesheya, i-aluminium isanda kuphuka futhi.Ezinhlobonhlobo ezinezisekelo ezibuthakathaka, njenge-nickel, ngemuva kokuphindaphinda esigabeni sangaphambilini, ingcindezi engenhla izoba sobala kakhulu.
Njengamanje, imakethe yensimbi engeyona i-ferrous ingene esikhathini sokuhlanganisa, futhi ithonya lezisekelo zezinhlobonhlobo ezihlukahlukene liye laphinde lavela.Isibonelo, abakhiqizi bephrofayili ye-zinc ne-aluminium e-china baye bathinteka yizinkinga zamandla eYurophu, futhi ingozi yokunciphisa ukukhiqiza iye yanda, kuyilapho ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium yasekhaya kuye kwathinteka ekunqanyulweni kwamandla wendawo.Ubungozi bokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza bukhulile.Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi ziyaqhubeka nokuthinteka yimpahla ephansi kanye nokunwebeka kokunikezwa okuphansi.Lapho i-liquidity yomhlaba iseyiningi uma kuqhathaniswa, ukuphazamiseka kwe-supply side kulula ukudonsa ukunaka kwemakethe. "Umhlaziyi wekusasa elimaphakathi nethemu uYang Lina uthe.
Kodwa-ke, u-Yang Lina ukhumbuze ukuthi imakethe idinga ukunaka ukuthi umhlangano waminyaka yonke wamabhange amaphakathi omhlaba eJackson Hole, owaziwa ngokuthi "i-barometer" yezindawo zokuguqula inqubomgomo, uzobanjwa kusukela ngo-Agasti 25 kuya ku-27, kanti uSihlalo we-Fed uPowell uzoba. ebanjwe ngoLwesihlanu zingama-22 isikhathi saseBeijing.khomba ukukhuluma ngombono wezomnotho.Ngaleso sikhathi, u-Powell uzochaza kabanzi mayelana nokusebenza kwe-inflation kanye nezinyathelo zenqubomgomo yezimali.Kulindeleke ukuthi kugcizelele ukuthi umnotho wase-US kanye nemakethe yezabasebenzi kusenamandla, futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphezulu ngendlela engamukeleki, futhi umgomo wezimali kusadingeka uqiniswe ukuze uphendule, futhi ijubane lokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo lizoqhubeka.Ilungiselwe idatha yezomnotho.Ulwazi olumenyezelwe emhlanganweni lusazoba nomthelela omkhulu emakethe.Uthe isigqi samanje sokuhweba ezimakethe siyashintshana phakathi kokuqinisa umnotho, ukusimama, kanye nokulindelwe kokwehla komnotho.Uma sibheka emuva, kungatholwa ukuthi ukusebenza kwemakethe yensimbi engeyona insimbi kusengcono kancane kunezinye izimpahla endaweni efanayo.
Uma sibheka abahlinzeki bephrofayili ye-aluminium, abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi ukwanda kwakamuva kweziphazamiso zasekhaya nezangaphandle kulethe ukwesekwa okusobala kwesikhathi esifushane.U-Yang Lina uthe okwamanje, uhlangothi lokuphakelwa kwe-aluminium lwasekhaya luthintwa ukunqanyulwa kwamandla okushisa aphezulu, namandla okukhiqiza ayaqhubeka nokuncipha.EYurophu, amandla okukhiqiza i-aluminium nawo anqanyuliwe futhi ngenxa yezinkinga zamandla.Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, izinkampani ezicubungulayo nazo ziyathinteka ngokuncishiswa kukagesi futhi izinga lokusebenza lehlile.Ngokuqhubeka kwesizini yokusetshenziswa kanye nokuwohloka kwemvelo yangaphandle, isimo sokuhleleka kwemboni yokucubungula sibuthaka uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi ukubuyiselwa kokusetshenziswa kwetheminali kuzothatha isikhathi kanye nezinyathelo ezengeziwe zokuvuselela.Mayelana ne-inventories, izinqolobane zomphakathi ziqongelele inani elincane lezintengo ze-aluminium ezingezinhle.
Ngokuqondile, u-Hou Yahui utshele izintatheli ukuthi ngaphezu kokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa okubangelwa izinkinga zamandla, abasebenzi baseHydro's Sunndal aluminium plant eNorway basanda kuqala isiteleka, kanti imboni ye-aluminium izomisa ukukhiqiza cishe ngo-20% emasontweni amane okuqala.Njengamanje, umthamo ophelele wokukhiqiza we-Sunndal Aluminium Plant ungamathani angu-390,000/ngonyaka, futhi isiteleka sihilela amathani angaba ngu-80,000/ngonyaka.
Ngaphakathi, ngo-Agasti 22, izidingo zokuncishiswa kwamandla esiFundazweni saseSichuan zaphinde zathuthukiswa, futhi wonke amabhizinisi e-electrolytic aluminium esifundazweni amisa ukukhiqiza.Ngokwezibalo, kukhona cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1 we-electrolytic aluminium yokusebenza kwamandla esifundazweni saseSichuan, futhi amanye amabhizinisi aseqalile ukwehlisa umthwalo futhi avumele ugesi kubantu kusukela maphakathi noJulayi.Ngemuva kuka-Agasti, isimo sokuphakelwa kukagesi saba sibi kakhulu, futhi wonke amandla okukhiqiza i-electrolytic aluminium esifundeni avaliwe.IChongqing, nayo eseningizimu-ntshonalanga, nayo isesimweni esishubile ekuhlinzekeni kukagesi ngenxa yezinga lokushisa eliphezulu.Kuyaqondakala ukuthi izitshalo ezimbili ze-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic zithintekile, ezibandakanya amandla okukhiqiza angaba amathani angama-30,000.Uthe ngenxa yalezi zici ezibalulwe ngenhla, kube nezinguquko kwiphethini exekethile yezinto eziyisisekelo ze-aluminium.Ngo-Agasti, ukucindezela okweqile ohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium electrolytic kwamiswa okwesikhashana, okwakha ukusekelwa okuthile kwamanani esikhathini esifushane.
“Kuyohlala isikhathi esingakanani ukusebenza okuqinile kwamanani e-aluminium ngokuyinhloko kuncike esikhathini sesiteleka ezimbonini ze-aluminium zaphesheya nokuthi izinga lokwehliswa kokukhiqizwa ngenxa yezinkinga zamandla lizophinde linwetshwe yini.”U-Yang Lina uthe uma isikhathi eside ukunikezwa okuhlobene nesidingo kuqhubeka kuqinile, umthelela emananini e-aluminium uzoba.Umthelela omkhulu ebhalansi yokuhlinzeka nesidingo.
U-Hou Yahui uthe njengoba kuphela iholide lasehlobo, isimo sezulu esiqhubekayo sokushisa esifundeni esiseningizimu-ntshonalanga kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele esiphethweni kancane kancane, kodwa kuzothatha isikhathi ukuze kuncishiswe inkinga yamandla, kanye nenqubo yokukhiqiza i-electrolytic. i-aluminium inquma ukuthi ukuqalisa kabusha kweseli ye-electrolytic nakho kuzothatha isikhathi.Ubikezela ukuthi ngemva kokuqinisekiswa kokunikezwa kwamandla kwamabhizinisi e-electrolytic aluminium esifundazweni saseSichuan, kulindeleke ukuthi wonke amandla okukhiqiza aqalwe kabusha okungenani cishe inyanga.
UWu Haode ukholelwa ukuthi imakethe ye-aluminium idinga ukunaka lezi zinto ezilandelayo: Mayelana nokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo, ukunqanyulwa kukagesi eSichuan kuholela ngokuqondile ekuncipheni kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1 amandla okukhiqiza kanye nokubambezeleka kwamathani angu-70,000 omthamo omusha wokukhiqiza. .Uma umthelela wokuvala shaqa uhlala inyanga eyodwa, okukhiphayo kwe-aluminium kungase kufinyelele ku-7.5%.amathani.Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ngaphansi kwezinqubomgomo ezinhle zasekhaya ezinkulu, ukwesekwa kwezikweletu nezinye izici, kukhona ukuthuthuka okuncane ekusetshenzisweni okulindelekile, futhi ngokufika kwesizini ephezulu ye-“Golden Nine Silver Ten”, kuzoba nokwenyuka okuthile kwesidingo. .Sekukonke, izinto eziyisisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium kanye nesidingo zingafingqwa ngokuthi: umkhawulo wokunikezela uyancipha, umkhawulo wokufunwa uyakhuphuka, kanye nebhalansi yokuhlinzeka nesidingo unyaka wonke iyathuthuka.
Mayelana ne-inventory, indawo yamanje ye-aluminium ye-LME ingaphansi kwamathani angu-300,000, i-aluminium yangaphambilini ingaphansi kwamathani angu-200,000, irisidi ye-warehouse ingaphansi kwamathani angu-100,000, kanti indawo ye-electrolytic aluminium social inventory ingaphansi kwama-700,000.“Imakethe ibilokhu ithi u-2022 unyaka lapho kufakwa khona i-electrolytic aluminium, futhi lokhu kunjalo ngempela.Kodwa-ke, uma sibheka ukuncipha kwamandla okukhiqiza i-aluminium ngonyaka ozayo nangesikhathi esizayo, amandla okusebenza e-electrolytic aluminium ahlala esondela 'esililini', futhi isidingo sihlala sizinzile.Endabeni yokukhula, noma ngabe kunenkinga yokusungula i-aluminium, noma kungenzeka ukuthi imakethe isiqalile ukuhwebelana, lokhu kudinga ukunakwa. ”Uthe.
Ngokuvamile, u-Wu Haode ukholelwa ukuthi intengo ye-aluminium izoba nethemba ku-"golden nine silver ten", kanti ukuphakama okuphezulu kubona i-19,500-20,000 yuan / ton.Mayelana nokuthi intengo ye-aluminium izophinde ikhuphuke ngokuqinile noma ingenzi lutho ngokuzayo, kufanele sinake ukuthuthukiswa okukhulu kokusetshenziswayo kanye negumbi lokuphazamiseka kokunikezwa.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-02-2022