I-Aluminium iyinsimbi esebenzisa amandla aphezulu kanye nokukhishwa kwekhabhoni ephezulu.Ngaphansi kwesizinda sokuvumelana kwamanje kwembulunga yonke ekuncishisweni kwekhabhoni, nangaphansi kwezingqinamba zenqubomgomo yasekhaya "yekhabhoni ephindwe kabili" kanye "nokulawulwa okuphindwe kabili kokusetshenziswa kwamandla", imboni ye-electrolytic aluminium izobhekana noshintsho olukhulu.Sizoqhubeka nokumba sijule embonini ye-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic, kusukela kunqubomgomo kuye embonini, kusukela ku-macro kuya ku-micro, kusukela ekuhlinzekeni kuye ekudingeni, ukuhlola okuguquguqukayo okungase kube khona kusixhumanisi ngasinye, nokuhlola umthelela wabo ongase ube khona emananini entengo ye-aluminium yesikhathi esizayo.
Izinga lokushisa eliphakeme liyashabalala, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi intengo ye-aluminium ibhekene "yehlisa umkhuhlane"
Ukushisa okushisayo ngo-August kwakhukhula umhlaba wonke, futhi izingxenye eziningi ze-Eurasia zabhekana nesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu sokushisa, futhi ugesi wendawo wawungaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu.Phakathi kwazo, intengo kagesi inyuke ezingxenyeni eziningi zeYurophu, okuye kwaholela ekunciphiseni ukukhiqizwa embonini yendawo ye-electrolytic aluminium.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isifunda esiseningizimu-ntshonalanga yezwe naso sathinteka kakhulu izinga lokushisa eliphezulu, futhi ukwehla okukhulu kokukhiqiza kwenzeka esifundeni saseSichuan.Ngaphansi kokuphazamiseka kohlangothi lokunikezela, intengo ye-aluminium iphinde yakhuphuka isuka cishe ku-17,000 yuan/ton maphakathi no-Julayi yaya ngaphezu kuka-19,000 yuan/ton ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti.Njengamanje, isimo sezulu esishisayo sesiqalile ukudamba futhi i-Fed kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphule amanani enzalo kakhulu.Ingabe intengo ye-aluminium ibhekene “nomkhuhlane”?
Sikholelwa ukuthi i-short-term macro sentiment i-bearish, futhi ukunyuka kwe-index ye-dollar yase-US kuye kwacindezela impahla, okuye kwafaka ingcindezi kumanani e-aluminium.Kodwa esikhathini esiphakathi, inkinga yokuntuleka kwamandla eYurophu izoba khona isikhathi eside, isilinganiso sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium electrolytic sizokwandiswa ngokwengeziwe, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwayo phansi nokugcina kuzoncika kakhulu ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe.Ngamanani aphansi wamandla e-China, ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium kwamanye amazwe kunenzuzo enezindleko eziphansi, okwenza ukuthengiswa kwasekhaya kungxenye yesithathu neyesine kungenzeka kugcine inkambiso enhle.Esikhathini esingekho sokusetshenziswa kwendabuko kwasekhaya, ukusetshenziswa kwetheminali kubonisa ukuqina okusobala, futhi ukunqwabelana kwesitoreji phakathi nomfula kanye nezixhumanisi ezansi nomfula kulinganiselwe.Ngemuva kokuthi izinga lokushisa eliphakeme lihlehlisiwe, ukwakhiwa komfula ongezansi kulindeleke ukuthi kuqale kabusha ngokushesha, okuqhubekisela phambili ukuncipha kwempahla.Ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwezinto eziyisisekelo kwenza i-Shanghai Aluminium iqine kakhudlwana.Uma umuzwa we-macro uba ngcono, uzoba nomfutho oqinile wokuphindaphinda.Ngemuva kwesizini ephezulu yokusetshenziswa kwe-“Golden Nine Silver Ten”, ukuncipha kwesidingo kanye nengcindezi evelele yokuhlinzeka, intengo ye-aluminium izophinde ibhekane nengcindezi enkulu yokulungiswa.
Ukusekelwa kwezindleko kusobala, ingcindezi ye-pullback ibuthakathaka kunoJuni
NgoJuni, i-Federal Reserve yamemezela ukuthi izokhuphula izinga lenzalo ngamaphuzu angama-75.Ngemuva kwesimemezelo, imakethe yaqala ukuhweba okulindelwe ukwehla komnotho, okubangela ukwehla okukhulu kwamanani e-aluminium emjikelezweni oqhubekayo kulo nyaka.Intengo yehle isuka cishe ku-21,000 yuan/ton maphakathi noJuni yaya kumayuan ayi-17,000 maphakathi noJulayi./t eduze.Ukwesaba ukwehla kwesidingo sesikhathi esizayo, kuhlangene nokukhathazeka mayelana nokwenza buthaka izinto eziyisisekelo zasekhaya, kube nomthelela ekwehleni kokugcina.
Ngemva kwamazwi ka-hawkish angesonto eledlule kaSihlalo weFederal Reserve, imakethe yaphinda yahweba okulindelwe ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo yamaphuzu angu-75, futhi amanani e-aluminium ehle cishe ngama-yuan angu-1,000 ezinsukwini ezintathu, futhi ebhekene nengcindezi enkulu yokulungiswa.Sikholelwa ukuthi ingcindezi yalokhu kulungiswa izoba buthakathaka kakhulu kunaleyo kaJuni: ngakolunye uhlangothi, inzuzo yemboni ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic ngoJuni yayingaphezu kuka-3,000 yuan / ton, noma ngabe ngokombono wesidingo sokubiyela isitshalo se-aluminium. ngokwayo, noma imboni ekhuphuka nomfula esimweni sokuntengantenga kwesidingo.Ngokombono wenzuzo ephezulu engapheli, izinkampani ze-aluminium zibhekene nengozi yokwehla kwenzuzo.Uma inzuzo iphezulu, ukuwa kukhulu, futhi inzuzo yamanje yemboni yehlele cishe kuma-yuan angu-400/ton, ngakho-ke sincane indawo yokuphinda ushaye ucingo.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izindleko zamanje ze-electrolytic aluminium ngokusobala ziyasekelwa.Isilinganiso sezindleko ze-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic maphakathi no-June sasicishe sibe ngu-18,100 yuan/ton, futhi izindleko zazisacishe zibe ngu-17,900 yuan/ton ekupheleni kuka-August, noshintsho oluncane kakhulu.Futhi esikhathini eside, kunesikhala esilinganiselwe se-alumina, i-anode ebhakwe ngaphambilini kanye nezindleko zikagesi zehle, okugcina izindleko zokukhiqiza i-electrolytic aluminium endaweni ephakeme isikhathi eside, ukwakha ukusekelwa kwentengo yamanje ye-aluminium. .
Izintengo zamandla aphesheya ziphezulu, futhi ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kuzokwanda kakhulu
Izindleko zamandla aphesheya zihlala ziphezulu, futhi ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kuzoqhubeka nokukhula.Ngokuhlaziywa kwesakhiwo samandla eYurophu nase-United States, kungabonakala ukuthi amandla avuselelekayo, igesi yemvelo, amalahle, amandla enuzi neminye imithombo yamandla kubala ingxenye enkulu.Ngokungafani ne-United States, iYurophu ithembele kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe ngegesi yemvelo namalahle.Ngo-2021, ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo yaseYurophu kuzoba ngama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-480, futhi cishe ama-40% okusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo angeniswa evela eRussia.Ngo-2022, ukungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine kwaholela ekuphazamisekeni kokunikezwa kwegesi yemvelo eRussia, okwaholela ekukhuphukeni okuqhubekayo kwamanani entengo yegesi yemvelo eYurophu, futhi iYurophu kwadingeka ibheke ezinye izindlela ezingasetshenziswa esikhundleni samandla aseRussia emhlabeni jikelele, okwaphoqa ngokungaqondile. kwenyusa amanani egesi yemvelo emhlabeni jikelele.Ngokuthintwa amanani aphezulu wamandla, izitshalo ezimbili ze-aluminum yaseNyakatho Melika zinciphise ukukhiqizwa, ngesilinganiso samathani angu-304,000 okunciphisa ukukhiqiza.Amathuba okuqhubeka nokuncishiswa komkhiqizo ngeke akhishwe esikhathini esizayo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinga lokushisa eliphezulu kanye nesomiso kulo nyaka kuye kwabangela umonakalo omkhulu esakhiweni samandla saseYurophu.Izinga lamanzi emifuleni eminingi yaseYurophu lehle kakhulu, okube nomthelela omkhulu ekusebenzeni kahle kokukhiqizwa kukagesi ngamanzi.Ukwengeza, ukuntuleka kwamanzi kuphinde kuthinte ukusebenza kahle kokupholisa kwezikhungo eziphehla amandla enuzi, futhi umoya ofudumele ubuye unciphise ukuphehlwa kwamandla omoya, okwenza kube nzima ukuthi izimboni zamandla enuzi nezinjini zomoya zisebenze.Lokhu kuphinde kwandise igebe lokuphakelwa kukagesi e-Europe, okuholele ngqo ekuvaleni kwezimboni eziningi ezidinga amandla kagesi.Ngokucabangela ubuthakathaka besakhiwo samanje samandla ase-Europe, sikholelwa ukuthi isikali sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium electrolytic yaseYurophu sizonwetshwa nakakhulu kulo nyaka.
Uma sibheka emuva ezinguqukweni zamandla okukhiqiza e-Europe, selokhu kwaba nenkinga yezimali ngo-2008, ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa okunqwabelanayo eYurophu ngaphandle kweRussia kudlule amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.5 (ngaphandle kokuncipha kokukhiqiza enkingeni yamandla ka-2021).Kunezici eziningi zokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa, kodwa ekuhlaziyeni kokugcina yinkinga yezindleko: isibonelo, ngemva kokugqashuka kwenkinga yezimali ngo-2008, intengo ye-electrolytic aluminium eYurophu yawela ngaphansi komugqa wezindleko, okwabangela ukuba intengo ye-electrolytic aluminium eYurophu yehle ngaphansi komugqa wezindleko. ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa okukhulu kwezitshalo ze-aluminium electrolytic yaseYurophu;Uphenyo lokulwa noxhaso lwentengo kagesi lwenzeka e-United Kingdom nakwezinye izifunda, oluholele ekwenyukeni kwamanani kagesi kanye nokwehliswa kokukhiqizwa kwezitshalo zendawo ze-aluminium.Uhulumeni wase-UK futhi uhlela ukuqala ngo-2013, okudinga ukuthi amajeneretha kagesi akhokhe imali eyengeziwe ekukhishweni kwekhabhoni.Lezi zinyathelo zikhuphule izindleko zokusetshenziswa kukagesi eYurophu, okuholele ekutheni iningi le-electrolytici-aluminium abahlinzeki bephrofayela lokho kumise ukukhiqizwa ekuqaleni futhi akuzange kuqalise kabusha ukukhiqiza.
Selokhu kwaqubuka inkinga kagesi e-Europe ngonyaka odlule, izindleko zikagesi wendawo zilokhu ziphezulu.Ngaphansi kwethonya lengxabano ye-Ukraine-Russia kanye nesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, intengo yegesi yemvelo nogesi e-Europe ifinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu.Uma izindleko zikagesi ezimaphakathi zibalwa kuma-euro angu-650 MWh ngayinye, ihora ngalinye le-kilowatt likagesi lilingana no-RMB 4.5/kW·h.Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ngethani ngalinye lokukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium electrolytic eYurophu cishe ku-15,500 kWh.Ngokwalesi sibalo, izindleko zokukhiqiza ngethani le-aluminium zisondele ku-70,000 yuan ngethani.Izitshalo ze-aluminium ngaphandle kwamanani entengo kagesi yesikhathi eside azikwazi ukukukhokhela nhlobo, futhi usongo lokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium electrolytic luyaqhubeka nokwanda.Kusukela ngo-2021, amandla okukhiqiza i-aluminium e-electrolytic eYurophu ehliswe ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.326.Silinganisela ukuthi ngemva kokungena ekwindla, inkinga yokuntuleka kwamandla eYurophu ayikwazi ukuxazululwa ngokuphumelelayo, futhi kunengozi yokwehliswa okwengeziwe ekukhiqizeni i-electrolytic aluminium.amathani noma kanjalo.Uma kucatshangelwa ukunwebeka okubi ngokwedlulele kokunikezwayo e-Europe, kuzoba nzima ukubuyisela isikhathi eside ngemuva kokusikwa kokukhiqiza.
Izimfanelo zamandla zivelele, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunezinzuzo zezindleko
Imakethe ngokuvamile ikholelwa ukuthi izinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi zinezimfanelo zezimali eziqinile ngaphezu kwezimfanelo zempahla.Sikholelwa ukuthi i-aluminium ihlukile kwezinye izinsimbi futhi inamandla anamandla, avame ukunganakwa yimakethe.Kuthatha i-13,500 kW h ukukhiqiza ithani elilodwa le-aluminum ye-electrolytic, edla ugesi ophakeme kakhulu ngethani kuzo zonke izinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ugesi wayo ubiza cishe u-34% -40% wezindleko eziphelele, ngakho ubizwa nangokuthi "ugesi wezwe eliqinile".I-kWh engu-1 kagesi idinga ukusebenzisa cishe amagremu angu-400 wamalahle avamile ngokwesilinganiso, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwethani elingu-1 le-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic kudinga ukusebenzisa isilinganiso samathani angu-5-5.5 wamalahle ashisayo.Izindleko zamalahle ezindleko zikagesi wasekhaya zibalelwa ku-70-75% wezindleko zokukhiqiza ugesi.Ngaphambi kokuthi izintengo zingalawulwa, izintengo zamalahle zesikhathi esizayo nezintengo ze-aluminium zase-Shanghai zibonise ukuhlobana okuphezulu.
Okwamanje, ngenxa yokuhlinzekwa okuzinzile nokulawulwa kwenqubomgomo, intengo yamalahle ashisayo yasekhaya inomehluko omkhulu wamanani nentengo yezindawo ezisetshenziswa kakhulu phesheya kwezilwandle.Intengo ye-FOB yamalahle ashisayo angu-6,000 kcal NAR e-Newcastle, e-Australia ingu-US$438.4/ton, intengo ye-FOB yamalahle ashisayo e-Puerto Bolivar, e-Colombia ingu-US$360/ton, kanti intengo yamalahle ashisayo ethekwini lase-Qinhuangdao ingu-US$190.54/ton , intengo ye-FOB yamalahle ashisayo echwebeni lase-Russian Baltic (i-Baltic) ingama-dollar angu-110 / ton, kanti intengo ye-FOB ye-6000 kcal NAR yamalahle ashisayo eMpumalanga Ekude (Vostochny) ingama-dollar angu-158.5 / ton.Izindawo ezingabizi kakhulu ngaphandle kwesifunda ziphakeme kakhulu kunezasekhaya.Izintengo zegesi yemvelo e-Europe nase-United States ziphezulu kunezintengo zamalahle.Ngakho-ke, i-aluminium ye-electrolytic yasekhaya inenzuzo eqinile yezindleko zamandla, ezoqhubeka nokugqama kumongo wamanani aphezulu wamanje wamandla omhlaba.
Ngenxa yomehluko omkhulu ezindlekweni zokuthekelisa zemikhiqizo ehlukene ye-aluminium e-China, inzuzo yezindleko zama-ingots e-aluminium ayibonakali enqubweni yokuthekelisa, kodwa ibonakala kunqubo elandelayo ye-aluminium.Ngokwemininingwane ethile, i-China yathumela ngaphandle amathani angu-652,100 emikhiqizo ye-aluminium ne-aluminium engagayiwe ngoJulayi 2022, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-39.1%;isamba semali esithunyelwa ngaphandle kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJulayi sasingamathani ayizigidi ezi-4.1606, okuwukukhuphuka konyaka ngama-34.9%.Ngenxa yokungabikho kwezinguquko eziphawulekayo esidingweni saphesheya kwezilwandle, ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kuphezulu.
Ukusetshenziswa kuyaqina, igolide, isiliva eyisishiyagalolunye neshumi kungalindelwa
Kusukela ngoJulayi kuya ku-Agasti kulo nyaka, ukusetshenziswa kwendabuko ngaphandle kwesizini kuhlangabezane nesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu.I-Sichuan, i-Chongqing, i-Anhui, i-Jiangsu nezinye izifunda zibe nemikhawulo yamandla nokukhiqiza, okubangele ukuvalwa kwamafekthri ezindaweni eziningi, kodwa ukusetshenziswa akukubi kakhulu kudatha.Okokuqala nje, ngokwezinga lokusebenza kwamabhizinisi asebenza ngaphansi komfula, bekungama-66.5% ekuqaleni kukaJulayi kanye nama-65.4% ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, ukwehla ngamaphesenti angu-1.1.Izinga lokusebenza lehle ngamaphesenti angu-3.6 esikhathini esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.Ngokombono wamazinga wokusungula, amathani angu-4,000 kuphela we-aluminium ingots agcinwe kulo lonke u-August, futhi amathani angu-52,000 ayengakagcinwa ngo-July-August.Ngo-August, isitoreji esiqoqiwe sezinduku ze-aluminium sasingamathani angu-2 600, futhi kusukela ngoJulayi kuya ku-August, isitoreji esiqoqiwe sezinduku ze-aluminium sasingamathani angu-11 300.Ngakho-ke, kusukela ngoJulayi kuya ku-Agasti, isimo sokukhishwa kwempahla sagcinwa sisonke, futhi amathani angu-6 600 kuphela aqoqwe ngo-Agasti, okubonisa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwamanje kusenokuqina okuqinile.Uma ubheka endaweni yokugcina, ukuchuma kwezimoto zamandla amasha kanye nokukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya kanye nelanga kuyagcinwa, futhi ukudonsa kokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium kuzoba unyaka wonke.Ukuthambekela kokwehla okupheleleyo kwezindlu ezithengiswayo akukashintshi.Ukuncipha kwezinga lokushisa eliphezulu kuzosiza indawo yokwakha ukuba iqale phansi umsebenzi, futhi ukwethulwa kwesikhwama sosizo sikazwelonke “sesakhiwo esiqinisekisiwe” esiyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-200 nakho kuzosiza ekuthuthukiseni isixhumanisi sokuqeda.Ngakho-ke, sikholwa ukuthi isizini ephezulu yokusetshenziswa kwe-“Golden Nine Silver Ten” isengalindelwa.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-09-2022