NgoMeyi, amanani entengo ye-aluminium yaseShanghai abonise inkambiso yokuqala ukuwa bese ekhuphuka, inzalo evulekile ye-aluminium yaseShanghai yahlala isezingeni eliphansi, futhi imakethe yayinomoya oqinile wokulinda nokubona.Njengoba izwe liqala kabusha umsebenzi nokukhiqiza, amanani e-aluminium angase akhuphuke ngezigaba.Kodwa-ke, engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ukuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic yasekhaya kuzokhuphuka futhi isidingo se-aluminium yaphesheya sizoba buthaka.Kulindeleke ukuthi amanani e-aluminium athwale umthwalo.
Izisekelo zaphesheya ziqinile
Usekelo lwesikhashana lwe-Lun Aluminium lusekhona
Kusukela ngekota yesibili, kube nemicimbi eminingi yaphesheya kwezilwandle, ethinte amanani entengo ye-aluminium.Ukwehla kwezintengo ze-aluminium e-London kukhulu kunokwehla kwezintengo ze-aluminium e-Shanghai.
Inqubomgomo yezimali ye-Federal Reserve "ye-hawkish" iphushele idola cishe eminyakeni engama-20 ukuphakama.Esimweni sokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke, ukuqinisa ngokushesha inqubomgomo yezimali ye-Fed kuye kwabeka ithunzi embonweni wezomnotho womhlaba wonke, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium phesheya kungase kwehle engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.Ngokuphambene, izincibilikisi ze-aluminium zase-Europe zinciphise ukuphuma ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamanani kagesi.Isimo se-geopolitical esiwohlokayo siphinde sithinte ukunikezwa kwe-electrolytic aluminium.Njengamanje, iYurophu ibeke ezinye izigwegwe emandleni aseRussia, futhi kunzima ukunciphisa amanani entengo kagesi yesikhashana.I-aluminium yaseYurophu izogcina izindleko eziphezulu kanye ne-premium ephezulu.
I-London Metal Exchange (LME) yokusungula i-aluminium electrolytic isezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni engu-20, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi izoqhubeka nokwehla.Kulindeleke ukuthi kube khona indawo encane yokwehla kwezintengo ze-aluminium okwesikhashana.
Umqedazwe wasekhaya uyathuthuka futhi uyalulama
Kulo nyaka, u-Yunnan ukhuthaze ukuqaliswa kwamandla okukhiqiza i-aluminium eluhlaza.Ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amabhizinisi e-aluminium e-Yunnan angena esigabeni sokusheshisa ukuqalisa kabusha ukukhiqiza.Idatha ibonisa ukuthi umthamo wasekhaya we-electrolytic aluminium wokusebenza udlula amathani ayizigidi ezingama-40.5.Nakuba isiqongo salo nyaka sokukhula kwamandla okukhiqiza i-aluminium ye-electrolytic sesidlulile, amathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezi-2 wamandla okukhiqiza i-electrolytic aluminium amasha azoqala kabusha kusukela ngoJuni.Idatha yeCustoms ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, i-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic yezwe lami ibisesimweni esilinganiselwe sokungenisa nokuthekelisa.Uma kuqhathaniswa nenani elijwayelekile langonyaka odlule lengqikithi yokungenisa ngaphandle kwamathani angaphezu kuka-100,000, ukuncipha kokungeniswa ngaphandle kwe-electrolytic aluminium kuye kwadambisa ingcindezi ekukhuleni kokunikezwayo.Ngemuva kukaJuni, ukunikezwa kwanyanga zonke kwe-aluminium electrolytic kancane kancane kuzodlula isikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, futhi ukunikezwa kwesikhathi eside kuzokwanda.
NgoMeyi, ubhubhane eMpumalanga China lwadamba, futhi imakethe yezokuthutha yaba ngcono.Iqoqo eliphelele lama-ingots ne-aluminium rods ligcine izinga lokwehla lamasonto onke lamathani angu-30,000, kodwa ukwehla bekusebuthakathaka uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo eminyakeni yamuva.Njengamanje, idatha yokuthengiswa kwezakhiwo ayilungile, futhi kuyadingeka ukulinda umphumela wokuqaliswa kwezinqubomgomo zendawo.Ukukhula kokusetshenziswa nokuthekelisa kwe-aluminium emikhakheni esafufusa kwashesha.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-April, amandla e-photovoltaic asanda kufakwa e-China akhuphuke ngo-130%, ukukhiqizwa nokuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla kukhuphuke ngaphezu kwe-110%, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium kukhuphuke cishe ngama-30%.Njengoba izwe lami lethule ngokulandelana imigomo yokusimamisa ukukhula nokuvikela izimpilo zabantu, isimo somnotho wakuleli sizoba nethemba.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium ekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi kugcine ukukhula okuhle kulo nyaka.
NgoMeyi, i-PMI yokukhiqiza yezwe lami yayingama-49.6, isengaphansi kwephuzu elibucayi, nokukhuphuka kwenyanga nenyanga ngama-2.2%, okubonisa ukuthi umthelela walolu bhubhane emnothweni usuntekenteke.Inani eliphelele le-inventory ye-aluminium aliphezulu, futhi isilinganiso sokusetshenziswa kwempahla sisezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni yamuva.Uma ukusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium yasekhaya kungafinyelela ukukhula okusheshayo, amanani e-aluminium azokhuthazwa ngezigaba.Kodwa-ke, ngaphansi kwesimo sokuthi ukukhula kokunikezwa kwe-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic kuzinzile uma kuqhathaniswa, uma intengo ye-aluminium e-Shanghai izothola ukukhuphuka okukhulu, idinga ukuba nokusebenza okuqinile nokuqinile kwe-destock.Futhi imakethe yamanje isabalele ekukhathazekeni kwe-electrolytic aluminium forward surplus, kungase kukhawulele ukuphakama kwamanani e-aluminium aphinde abuyele emuva.
Esikhathini esifushane, izintengo ze-aluminium zase-Shanghai zizoshintshashintsha phakathi kuka-20,000 no-21,000 wamayuan ngethani.NgoJuni, intengo yamayuan angu-21,000 ngethani ngalinye le-aluminum ye-electrolytic izoba iphuzu elibalulekile ezinhlangothini ezinde nezifushane zemakethe.Esikhathini esimaphakathi, amanani entengo ye-aluminium ye-Shanghai yehle ngaphansi komugqa wesikhathi eside wokukhuphuka owenziwe kusukela ngo-2020, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe yezinkunzi ye-electrolytic aluminium eminyakeni emibili edlule izophela.Ngokombono wesikhathi eside, amazwe aphesheya anengozi yokuwohloka komnotho okubangelwa ukuqiniswa kwezinqubomgomo zezimali.Uma isidingo setheminali se-aluminium singena emjikelezweni owehlayo, kunengozi yokwehla kwezintengo ze-aluminium.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jun-22-2022