Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, kube neziphazamiso eziningi eziyisisekelo nezinkulu.Ngaphansi kokuzwakala kwezinto eziningi, i-Shanghai Aluminium yaphuma emakethe ye-V ehlanekezelwe.Sekukonke, ukuthambekela engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka kungahlukaniswa izigaba ezimbili.Isigaba sokuqala sisukela ekuqaleni konyaka kuya ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokuqala zikaNdasa.Ukunikezwa kwasekhaya kuqinile ngenxa yemikhawulo yokukhiqiza yokuvikela imvelo yama-Winter Olympics kanye nobhubhane lwe-Baise.Phesheya kwezilwandleabahlinzeki bephrofayela ye-aluminiumiye yathinteka kakhulu izingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhathazeka mayelana nokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza eYurophu kuye kwanda, futhi ngakolunye uhlangothi, isikhungo sezindleko sikhuphuke ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamanani kagesi kumongo wengxabano.Ifakwe phezulu ekushayeleni kwe-nickel yaseLondon ekuqaleni kukaMashi, i-Shanghai Aluminium iqhubekile nokukhuphuka kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, ifinyelela inani eliphakeme lama-yuan angama-24,255 / ton, ukuphakama okuyizinyanga ezine nesigamu.Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaMashi, nakuba ingene enkathini evamile yokufunwa, ngaphansi komthelela wokulawula ubhubhane ezindaweni eziningi, ukulindela kokululama okuphawulekayo kwesidingo akuzange kwenzeke, futhi ingcindezi ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka luye lwavela kancane kancane.Inqubomgomo yezimali ye-Fed yaqhubeka nokuqina, futhi ukukhathazeka kwemakethe mayelana nokuwohloka komnotho womhlaba kubeka ingcindezi enkulu enanini le-aluminium.
I-supply side inciphisa ukukhiqizwa futhi iqalise kabusha ukukhiqiza, umfutho okhuphukayo uphendukela kungcindezi ephansi
I abakhiqizi bephrofayili ye-aluminiume-china side sithintwe umcimbi wokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwikota yokuqala.Ekuqaleni konyaka, ukukhiqizwa bekunomkhawulo ngenxa yama-Olimpiki Wasebusika, futhi ukuncishiswa okukhulu kokukhiqizwa kwe-alumina ohlangothini lwempahla eluhlaza nakho kwacindezelwa.NgoFebhuwari, ubhubhane e-Guangxi lwaholela ekwandeni kokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-electrolytic aluminium e-Baise.Isifunda saseBaise singenye yezindawo ezikhiqiza kakhulu i-electrolytic aluminium eChina.Ubhubhane selubangele ukuthi imakethe ikhathazeke ngokuhlinzekwa.Kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaFebhuwari kuya kuNdasa, okuthinteke ukungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka phesheya kwezilwandle lwaluqinile, futhi imakethe yaqala ukuhwebelana ngamathuba okuthi iRusal yathintwa unswinyo kanye nethuba lokwehliswa kokukhiqizwa okukhuthazwa yizindleko eziphezulu zamandla eYurophu.Ngaphansi kwethonya lezici eziningi zangaphakathi nezangaphandle, ukusebenza kokunikezwa kwe-aluminium engxenyeni yokuqala bekuhlala kuqinile, futhi izintengo ze-aluminium ziye zakhuphuka ngomfutho.
Kusukela ngekota yesibili, ukusebenza kohlangothi lokunikezela kubuyele emuva.Umkhawulo wokukhiqiza wama-Olimpiki Wasebusika kanye nomthelela we-Baise epidemic uphelile.Uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka luqale kabusha kancane kancane ukukhiqiza, futhi ukuqaliswa kabusha kokukhiqizwa e-Yunnan kubonise izimpawu zokusheshisa.Ekulandeleni, njengoba amandla amasha okukhiqiza eqhubeka nokufakwa ekukhiqizeni, i-electrolytic aluminium Production ikhula kancane kancane.Nakuba uhlangothi lokunikezwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe luhlale luthintwa yinkinga yamandla, ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa e-Europe kugxile kakhulu engxenyeni yesine ka-2021 kanye nekota yokuqala ka-2022, futhi ngeke kube nokuncishiswa okusha kokukhiqiza esikhathini esizayo.Ngakho-ke, kusukela kukota yesibili, ukwesekwa okulethwe uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka phesheya kwezilwandle kuzoqala Ukuncipha, futhi ngokukhululwa okuqhubekayo kwamandla okukhiqiza asekhaya e-electrolytic aluminium, ingcindezi yamanani e-aluminium kusukela ekunikezeni okukhulayo kuye kwavela kancane kancane.
Isikhathi esivamile sonyaka esiphezulu saphazanyiswa yilolu bhubhane, futhi isidingo engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka yahlala ibuthakathaka.
Nakuba isidingo ekuqaleni konyaka sasibuthakathaka ngenxa yezici ezifana nedatha engeyinhle yezindawo ezithengiswayo kanye nesidingo sangaphandle kwesizini, imakethe yayinezilindelo eziqinile zenkathi ephakeme yokufunwa, esekela ukukhuphuka kwamanani e-aluminium.Kodwa-ke, ukugqashuka eShanghai kwaqala ngoMashi, futhi kwaqubuka ukuqubuka ezindaweni eziningi zezwe.Ukuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane kukhawule ezokuthutha kanye nokwakhiwa komfula.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa yobude besikhathi eside, yonke inkathi yokufunwa kwenani eliphakeme yathintwa ubhubhane, futhi izici zenkathi ephakeme azizange zivele.
Nakuba ngasekupheleni kwalolu bhubhane, izwe selithule ngokulandelana izinqubomgomo eziningi ezivunayo ukuze kugqugquzelwe ukusimama kokusetshenziswa ngemuva kwalolu bhubhane, osekuqinise ukuzethemba kwemakethe ekubuyiseni isidingo kanye nokwenyusa amanani entengo ye-aluminium.Kodwa-ke, ngokombono wokusebenza kwangempela, nakuba ukusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium phansi komfula ngoJuni kuye kwaba ngcono uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esidlule, ukuthuthukiswa akubonakali, futhi ukusebenza kwezindlu ezithengiswayo bekulokhu kubi, okuye kwadonsela phansi ukubuyiswa kwesidingo. .Ngokumelene nesizinda sokulindela okuqinile kanye neqiniso elibuthakathaka, kunzima ukusekela ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani e-aluminium.Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba kusondela isizini engasebenzi, isidingo singase singathuthuki kakhulu.
Izimpahla ze-aluminium e-Shanghai nase-London ziyaqhubeka nokwehla, futhi kunokusekelwa okuthile okungaphansi kwamanani e-aluminium
Engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, i-inventory ye-aluminium eLondon yayisesimweni sokuncipha iyonke, futhi yaphinde yaphindeka okwesikhashana, kodwa ukuthambekela kokwehla jikelele akukashintshi.Iqoqo le-aluminium eLondon lehlile lisuka kumathani angu-934,000 ekuqaleni konyaka laya kumathani angu-336,000 amanje.Kunezimpawu zokuthi amazinga e-inventory ehlele ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni engaphezu kwengama-21.Kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka kuze kube sekuqaleni kukaMashi, inani le-aluminium eliphelele e-Shanghai lenyuka, lafinyelela ezingeni eliphakeme lezinyanga eziyishumi ngoMashi 11, kwase kuqala imodi yokwehla, futhi ukusungula kwakamuva kwehle kwaba sezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni emibili.Sekukonke, ukufakwa kwe-aluminium e-Shanghai nase-London okwamanje kusesimweni sokuncipha okuqhubekayo, futhi ukwehla okuqhubekayo kokwehla okusha kunokusekelwa okuthile ngaphansi kwentengo ye-aluminium.
Ingozi yokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni iyanda, futhi isimo esingenathemba esikhulu sibeka ingcindezi emananini e-aluminium
Kulo nyaka, ingcindezi enkulu iye yanda.Ingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine eqale ekuqaleni konyaka ishubile.Amanani kagesi anyukile, okuholele ekwehleni kancane kancane kokwehla kwamandla emali phesheya kwezilwandle.Isimo se-Fed kancane kancane sesiphenduke i-hawkish.Kusukela ngoMeyi nangoJuni, imininingwane ikhombise ukuthi amandla emali aphesheya kwezilwandle aphakeme.Ngokumelene nalesi sizinda, i-Fed Umsindo wokunyusa amanani enzalo kanye nokuncipha kwe-balance sheet uyathandeka kakhulu, futhi ukulindela ukuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni wonke kwenze isimo semakethe yaba buthaka, futhi izinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi zingaphansi kwengcindezi.Ikakhulukazi ngasekupheleni kukaJuni, i-Federal Reserve yanquma ukukhuphula izinga lenzalo ngamaphuzu angu-75 kanye nenqubekelaphambili yokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo esikhathini esizayo, okubangele ukuwohloka komqondo wemakethe, futhi imakethe yayikhathazekile ngengozi yokuwohloka komnotho.
Mayelana nenkambiso yesikhathi esizayo, imvelo enkulu ingase ingabi nethemba.Inkomba yedola laseMelika isebenza ngezinga eliphezulu.I-CPI yakamuva yase-US ngoJuni iqophe ukwanda okukhulu konyaka nonyaka eminyakeni engaphezu kwengama-40, kodwa uBiden uthe imininingwane yokwehla kwamandla emali isesikhathini esedlule.kulindeleke ukuthi ibuyele emuva.Isimo sengqondo se-Fed sokulawula ukwehla kwamandla emali siya ngokuya sinqunywa.NgoJulayi, i-Fed ingase iqhubeke nokukhuphula izinga lenzalo ngamaphoyinti angu-75.Imakethe isakhathazekile ngokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni jikelele.Ukungathembeki kwe-macro sentiment kunomthelela omkhulu ezintengo ze-aluminium zesikhathi esizayo, futhi kungase kuqhubeke nokuba ngaphansi kwengcindezi esikhathini esifushane.
Ngokombono oyisisekelo, uhlangothi lwesidingo lungene kusizini engasebenzi, ukusetshenziswa kwesikhathi esifushane kungase kungaboni intuthuko enkulu, futhi okuphumayo ohlangothini lokunikezela kuyaqhubeka nokukhula.Nakuba intengo ye-aluminium iwile emugqeni wezindleko, azikho izindaba zokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa.Uma ukulahleka kwezitshalo ze-aluminium e-electrolytic kwehluleka ukudala ukwehla kokukhuphuka kokukhiqiza noma ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa, ukwehla kwezisekelo kuzoqhubeka nokuhlala kubuthakathaka, futhi amanani e-aluminium azoqhubeka ehla, futhi aqhubeke nokuhlola ukusekela izindleko kuze kube yilapho ukuncipha kokukhiqiza kuletha okusha. umshayeli.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-08-2022